Protagon: Clouds in the eastern Mediterranean

Turkeys choice to stand up to Israel and assert the role of "opponent awe" in the Middle East didnt happen yesterday. In 2009, when Erdogan raised his voice to Peres at Davos, many analysts interpreted the Turkish prime minister's ambition to build a leading role for his country in the Arab world. Since then many things have occurred: the dynamic entrance of Ahmet Davutoglu to the field of Turkish foreign policy, the adoptation of a doctrine that refers to a "neo-Ottoman Model", the restoration communication channels in Ankara with Hamas (the Palestinian organization that envisions the establishment of a new state with features similar to modern Islamic regimes), the Israeli resalto on the Turkish ship "Mavi Marmara" that attempted to break the blockade of Gaza in a humanitarian convoy and the Arab Spring, which surprised the anchor, resulting in some retractions by Erdogan, since the Turkish diplomacy realised the theory of zero problems with its neighbors is inadequate

We come to today. The claim of leadership in the Arab world, explains every single action of Erdogan and how we got to the point the Turkish prime minister (in his statements yesterday 6/9/2011, which reported the Associated Press) to call Israel a "spoiled child". Turkey follows the beaten track, in an attempt to build a convincing picture of the conflict with Israel, because this has been perpetualy the easiest way for a country to win points within the Arab world. The same "recipe" was applied in previous decades by Egypt and Syria, but also in the most recent past - to great effect - Iran. To overcome Tehran, Ankara today surpasses it in aggression against Israel. To the extent that they remain words, the crowns of Erdogan - Davutoglu pose no problem. Instead, a problem may occur if Turkey makes hasty moves that will be interpreted as an act of aggression from Tel Aviv. In one such rapid deterioration in Turkish-Israeli relations it might lead to "openings" of Ankara towards Hamas. For example, the disclosure of Erdogan's desire to travel to the Gaza Strip through the Rafah border crossing with Egypt, would constitute a direct challenge to Israel. It is no coincidence that within 24 hours, Egypt was careful to signal that there are objective problems to such a visit. Egypt has never liked the Hamas, for Mubarak, it was unlikely from Erdogan to give a similar request. Ankara could also lead into a "Rock " situation if it pulled out half its fleet in the Eastern Mediterranean (in a four-column report in newspaper headlines yesterday 6/9/2011, the Turkish newspaper Sabah has revealed the first information that" the project called 'Barbaris "doubled the number of frigates, torpedo boats, helicopters and submarines carrying out duties in the Mediterranean Shield"). The requirement for Turkey to ensure the "free shipping" in the Eastern Mediterranean is linked to the fact that the Israeli resalto to the "Mavi Marmara" was over international waters - 75 nautical miles from shore. Big question is, if the Turks would dare to cause a hot episode with Israel, trying to escort another convoy with military ships in the future ...

At the strategic point of the Eastern Mediterranean, lies Cyprus. The distancing of Turkey from Israel, naturally lead Tel Aviv in search of new members and supports alliances in the region. To obtain however, any strategic nature of such relationship will take time and luck. Luck seems to have been found in the underwater world of Cyprus , where works will begin during the month of September - no later than October 1, 2011 - with the drilling rigs of the U.S. Noble Energy. The U.S. involvement in the offshore energy safari in the Eastern Mediterranean basin is the element that might eventually make a difference. From the moment the Americans give the the green light for oil exploration, the "engagement" of Israel to Cyprus can become a "marriage" and the outlook for greeco-israeli 'strategic partnership' (as featured on the Minister of National Defence , P. Beglitis, before visiting some 24hours Tel-Aviv) will be greatly enhanced. For the moment we are not there, but the Greek foreign ministry is optimistic - mainly for a reason, as a delegated diplomat told me: by the time the Noble Energy putd its beautiful dollars to acquire exploration rights and mining, it would be very difficult to be pushed away by Turkish tricks. Here we are dealing with a powerful American company (which, incidentally, involved holding shares worth 307 million U.S. dollars to Israeli Delek Energy). Moreover, the Delek aims to take the terminal building and / or submarine gas pipeline to Cyprus.

The next 24 hours, the Cyprus will be the core of processes that can dramatically alter the balance in the wider Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean. Greece and Cyprus may have missed many opportunities to date, but here is where we can not afford to lose it again. Turkey seems likely to pursue the intensity, and the concentration of military forces in such a sensitive area inevitably increases the chances of a hot incident. Greece and Cyprus should not "bite", but should be fearfull. It will not be easy. But the stakes are extremely valuable to be abandoned to their fate.

By Antonis Fourlis

From: http://www.protagon.gr/?i=protagon.el.8emata&id=8679

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